Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.470655 2.611040 2.762755 2.940365 3.144574 3.374573 3.657070
2025-03-16 2.241147 2.424695 2.633989 2.894945 3.218867 3.618901 4.170956
2025-03-23 2.138645 2.352775 2.606710 2.939153 3.378854 3.968952 4.885265
2025-03-30 2.015100 2.238526 2.509721 2.875600 3.379860 4.096778 5.315428
2025-04-06 1.911200 2.137900 2.417733 2.803776 3.352904 4.170769 5.675353
2025-04-13 1.834108 2.064308 2.352759 2.758868 3.353925 4.281531 6.136863
2025-04-20 1.800129 2.042054 2.351136 2.798154 3.480256 4.615663 7.210255
2025-04-27 1.785841 2.043269 2.379272 2.880277 3.682279 5.132906 9.168448
2025-05-04 1.746039 2.008280 2.355151 2.882503 3.753838 5.425013 10.905946
2025-05-11 1.710288 1.976558 2.333055 2.884904 3.824721 5.737022 13.375574
2025-05-18 1.655515 1.916809 2.268308 2.816320 3.761072 5.731722 14.391202
2025-05-25 1.623574 1.886644 2.243841 2.808665 3.806660 5.999005 18.163926
2025-06-01 1.591277 1.855957 2.218786 2.801018 3.857093 6.315602 25.639091
2025-06-08 1.552138 1.814521 2.176379 2.762547 3.844105 6.463694 35.317717
2025-06-15 1.537737 1.806520 2.181982 2.802628 3.991853 7.152660 NaN
2025-06-22 1.498281 1.762067 2.131596 2.745206 3.931142 7.154670 NaN
2025-06-29 1.458971 1.716742 2.078344 2.680130 3.848180 7.058999 NaN
2025-07-06 1.428086 1.682463 2.040458 2.639348 3.813493 7.129201 NaN
2025-07-13 1.418587 1.678002 2.046986 2.675029 3.948961 7.912256 NaN
2025-07-20 1.418866 1.687297 2.074563 2.749439 4.185891 9.399211 NaN
2025-07-27 1.401928 1.671237 2.062328 2.751452 4.252927 10.178620 NaN
2025-08-03 1.385884 1.655970 2.050662 2.753624 4.321065 11.090215 NaN
2025-08-10 1.356156 1.620102 2.005600 2.691509 4.217642 10.751197 NaN